South Carolina Upstate

Conference:	ASun
Expected RPI:	225.0
Current RPI:	225
Expected SOS:	278
Current SOS:	278
Current Record:	14-17
Expected Record:	14-17
Current Conf Record:	10-10
Expected Conf Record:	10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	14-7
Current OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC RPI:	199
Expected OOC SOS:	190

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-17	225.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Carolina Upstate.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	St. Louis (15.0)	A10	A	76-59	L	0%
11-17	Texas San Antonio (260.0)	WAC	A	67-59	L	0%
11-20	Santa Clara (101.0)	WCC	A	85-65	L	0%
11-21	Eastern Washington (321.0)	BSky	N	75-70	L	0%
11-23	Utah Valley (297.0)	GWC	N	75-50	W	100%
11-29	NC Asheville (217.0)	BSth	A	71-73	W	100%
12-2	Kansas St. (19.0)	B12	A	72-53	L	0%
12-8	Texas San Antonio (260.0)	WAC	H	88-77	W	100%
12-17	Baylor (71.0)	B12	A	73-57	L	0%
12-21	Tennessee St. (105.0)	OVC	A	67-64	L	0%
1-2	Hampton (287.0)	MEAC	H	68-49	W	100%
1-5	Northern Kentucky (264.0)	ASun	A	54-60	W	100%
1-7	Lipscomb (237.0)	ASun	A	61-98	W	100%
1-10	Florida Gulf Coast (94.0)	ASun	H	71-72	L	0%
1-12	Stetson (220.0)	ASun	H	64-66	L	0%
1-17	Kennesaw St. (341.0)	ASun	A	54-66	W	100%
1-19	Mercer (137.0)	ASun	A	82-74	L	0%
1-24	North Florida (230.0)	ASun	H	63-57	W	100%
1-26	Jacksonville (281.0)	ASun	H	79-64	W	100%
1-28	East Tennessee St. (275.0)	ASun	H	88-71	W	100%
1-31	Lipscomb (237.0)	ASun	H	83-71	W	100%
2-2	Northern Kentucky (264.0)	ASun	H	65-70	L	0%
2-7	Stetson (220.0)	ASun	A	73-66	L	0%
2-9	Florida Gulf Coast (94.0)	ASun	A	74-49	L	0%
2-14	Mercer (137.0)	ASun	H	59-70	L	0%
2-16	Kennesaw St. (341.0)	ASun	H	79-67	W	100%
2-21	Jacksonville (281.0)	ASun	A	68-64	L	0%
2-23	North Florida (230.0)	ASun	A	77-53	L	0%
3-1	East Tennessee St. (275.0)	ASun	A	56-88	W	100%
3-7	Jacksonville (281.0)	ASun	N	62-76	W	100%
3-8	Mercer (137.0)	ASun	A	72-64	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Carolina Upstate's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

South Carolina Upstate's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against South Carolina Upstate.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	26.56	26.56	48.89	48.89	-0.59	-0.59
Mercer	ASun	5.86	5.86	62.07	62.07	1.41	1.41
Jacksonville	ASun	5.74	5.74	40.74	40.74	-1.06	-1.06
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	4.37	4.37	66.67	66.67	1.46	1.46
Stetson	ASun	4.29	4.29	42.86	42.86	-0.61	-0.61
North Florida	ASun	4.26	4.26	37.93	37.93	-1.03	-1.03
Lipscomb	ASun	4.26	4.26	40.74	40.74	-0.79	-0.79
East Tennessee St.	ASun	4.24	4.24	31.03	31.03	-1.61	-1.61
Northern Kentucky	ASun	4.20	4.20	40.00	40.00	-0.84	-0.84
Kennesaw St.	ASun	4.19	4.19	10.71	10.71	-3.29	-3.29
Texas San Antonio	WAC	3.23	3.23	30.00	30.00	-1.29	-1.29
Kansas St.	B12	1.72	1.72	78.12	78.12	0.97	0.97
Santa Clara	WCC	1.69	1.69	62.07	62.07	0.41	0.41
Hampton	MEAC	1.67	1.67	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
Eastern Washington	BSky	1.67	1.67	30.00	30.00	-0.67	-0.67
Utah Valley	GWC	1.67	1.67	37.04	37.04	-0.43	-0.43
Baylor	B12	1.66	1.66	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
St. Louis	A10	1.64	1.64	81.25	81.25	1.02	1.02
NC Asheville	BSth	1.61	1.61	46.43	46.43	-0.12	-0.12
Tennessee St.	OVC	1.61	1.61	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.24	0.24	38.46	38.46	-0.05	-0.05
Georgia	SEC	0.21	0.21	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.21	0.21	76.47	76.47	0.11	0.11
Belmont	OVC	0.19	0.19	80.00	80.00	0.12	0.12
Miami FL	ACC	0.18	0.18	81.82	81.82	0.12	0.12
Denver	WAC	0.18	0.18	70.00	70.00	0.07	0.07
San Francisco	WCC	0.17	0.17	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.16	0.16	37.04	37.04	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.16	0.16	25.00	25.00	-0.08	-0.08
Texas Tech	B12	0.16	0.16	35.48	35.48	-0.05	-0.05
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.16	0.16	14.29	14.29	-0.11	-0.11
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.16	0.16	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.16	0.16	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Brigham Young	WCC	0.16	0.16	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
Utah St.	WAC	0.16	0.16	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Furman	SC	0.16	0.16	17.24	17.24	-0.10	-0.10
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.15	0.15	75.00	75.00	0.08	0.08
Iowa St.	B12	0.15	0.15	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.15	0.15	80.65	80.65	0.09	0.09
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.15	0.15	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Kansas	B12	0.15	0.15	85.29	85.29	0.11	0.11
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.13	0.13	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.13	0.13	20.69	20.69	-0.08	-0.08
Charlotte	A10	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
San Jose St.	WAC	0.13	0.13	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Florida St.	ACC	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Seattle	WAC	0.13	0.13	24.14	24.14	-0.07	-0.07
Texas	B12	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.11	0.11	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.11	0.11	20.69	20.69	-0.07	-0.07
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.11	0.11	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.11	0.11	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Mississippi	SEC	0.11	0.11	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Radford	BSth	0.11	0.11	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Wofford	SC	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Portland	WCC	0.11	0.11	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.11	0.11	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
St. John's	BE	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.10	0.10	93.75	93.75	0.09	0.09
Richmond	A10	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Florida International	SB	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Texas Christian	B12	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
West Virginia	B12	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Texas St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.10	0.10	85.29	85.29	0.07	0.07
Ohio St.	B10	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.09	0.09	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.08	0.08	67.86	67.86	0.03	0.03
Pepperdine	WCC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Missouri St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
St. Mary's	WCC	0.08	0.08	81.25	81.25	0.05	0.05
Minnesota	B10	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.08	0.08	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.05	0.05
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	A10	0.07	0.07	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.06	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
Siena	MAAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Tulsa	CUSA	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.06	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.06	0.06	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Hawaii	BW	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Idaho St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.05	79.31	79.31	0.03	0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	28.00	28.00	-0.02	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	55.17	55.17	0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Pacific	BW	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	7.14	7.14	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.02	0.02	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
North Texas	SB	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Temple	A10	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Xavier	A10	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00